Analyzing Goalie Performance for Smarter NHL Bets

Hockey games often come down to goaltending. A strong goalie can steal a win. A weak one can sink a team. Goalie stats for NHL betting help bettors make smarter picks. They show who is in top form and who is struggling.

A goalie’s stats reveal trends. They tell if a netminder is hot or cold. They also show how well a team protects its goalie. A bettor who understands goalie performance gains an edge.

Key Goalie Stats and How to Use Them

Here are the most important stats for evaluating goalies. Each provides insight into performance.

Save Percentage (SV%)

Save percentage shows the ratio of saves to shots faced.

Formula: Saves ÷ Shots Faced

A .920 SV% means the goalie stops 92% of shots. Higher is better.

What’s Considered Good?

• Great: .925 or higher
• Good: .910 to .924
• Poor: Below .910

Example:

• Igor Shesterkin (New York Rangers): .924 SV%
• Jordan Binnington (St. Louis Blues): .905 SV%

Shesterkin is more reliable at stopping shots. Because of these percentages, he gives the Rangers an advantage in goalie play. However, a team’s defense also plays a role by limiting the number of shots faced.

Goals Against Average (GAA)

GAA shows how many goals a goalie allows per game.

Formula: Goals Allowed ÷ Games Played

A lower number is better.

What’s Considered Good?

• Great: 2.20 or lower
• Good: 2.21 to 2.80
• Poor: Above 2.80

Example:

• Connor Hellebuyck: 2.45 GAA
• Sergei Bobrovsky: 2.95 GAA

Hellebuyck lets in fewer goals per game. That makes him a better option for betting on low-scoring matchups.

High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%)

HDSV% tracks how well a goalie stops tough shots from close range.

Formula: High-Danger Saves ÷ High-Danger Shots Faced

What’s Considered Good?

• Great: .850 or higher
• Good: .810 to .849
• Poor: Below .810

Example:

• Juuse Saros: .860 HDSV%
• Cam Talbot: .805 HDSV%

Here, we see that Saros stops more tough shots. Bettors should trust him more in tight games.

Expected Goals Against (xGA)

xGA estimates how many goals a goalie should allow based on shot quality.

Formula: Sum of Expected Goals from All Shots Faced

A lower xGA means the goalie faces fewer dangerous chances.

What’s Considered Good?

• Great: Significantly lower than actual goals allowed
• Good: Close to actual goals allowed
• Poor: Higher than actual goals allowed

Example:

• Jake Oettinger: xGA = 50.5, Actual Goals Allowed = 47
• John Gibson: xGA = 45.2, Actual Goals Allowed = 50

From this we see that Oettinger is outperforming expectations, while Gibson is struggling.

Wins and Quality Starts (QS%)

Wins matter, but not all wins are equal. Quality Starts (QS%) track how often a goalie plays well enough to give his team a chance to win.

Formula: Quality Starts ÷ Total Starts

What’s Considered Good?

• Great: 60% or higher
• Good: 50% to 59%
• Poor: Below 50%

Example:

• Andrei Vasilevskiy: 67% QS%
• Alex Lyon: 45% QS%

Vasilevskiy is more dependable. Bettors should favor his team over Lyon’s.

Where to Find Goalie Stats

Finding reliable goalie stats is key for NHL betting. Several websites offer detailed stats that help bettors analyze performance trends and make better picks.

• Hockey-Reference.com – Provides a full breakdown of goalie stats, including basic and advanced metrics.
• Natural Stat Trick – Features in-depth stats like High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%) and Expected Goals Against (xGA).
• NHL.com – The official site for NHL statistics, offering team and goalie trends throughout the season.

Checking these sources regularly helps bettors stay updated on goalie performance and make informed wagers.

Comparing Two Goalies

Let’s compare two goalies using the stats above. When analyzing goalie stats, these figures can heavily influence betting decisions, such as moneyline bets or the over/under on goals scored.

Goalie	SV%	GAA	HDSV%	xGA	QS%
Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders)	.923	2.35	.870	48.7	68%
Jack Campbell (Edmonton Oilers)	.902	3.10	.800	53.2	49%

Sorokin outperforms Campbell in every key stat. He stops more shots, allows fewer goals, and wins more games for his team. These factors give the Islanders an advantage in goaltending over the Oilers, which could influence betting decisions, especially for moneyline bets or total goals. However, other factors like team defense and offensive strength also play a role in the game’s outcome.

Conclusion

Goalie stats for NHL betting provide a big advantage. They help bettors see which goalies can steal games and which ones struggle. Stats like SV%, GAA, HDSV%, and xGA reveal key details. Sites like Hockey-Reference.com make it easy to track them. Understanding goalie performance leads to smarter bets and better results.

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