Sports Handicapping Algorithms

What is an algorithm?  The dictionary definition of an algorithm is a process or set of rules to be followed in calculations or other problem-solving operations, especially by a computer.  In the world of sports betting, sports handicapping algorithms are systems that try to predict the outcome of a sporting event based on relevant data such as team or player statistics.  For many sports handicappers, these algorithms or systems are of the utmost importance.  No, they don’t just wake up, roll out of bed, put on green boxer shorts and think to themselves, “hey, green underwear, I did this for a reason.  I must bet on the Celtics tonight.  What’s the spread on that game anyway?”.  Well, at least the more successful handicappers out there will not bet like this.

In fact, maybe it will be shocking to hear that many of the most profitable sports handicappers out there depend upon specific handicapping systems rather than their knowledge of a sports team or sporting event in general.

What is their secret of success?  For these handicappers, their success is due to the reality that they have taken the time (much time) to develop a sports handicapping system that they trust, believe in and rely upon over and over again.  They may tweak the system from time to time, making their complex system even more complex, however they will be committed to this system and they will profit from this system.  I, state your name, vow to support you, push you, inspire you, in sickness and in health, as long as we both shall live.

How to Develop Sports Handicapping Algorithms – What are the Steps Involved?

When the majority of individuals think of creating a reliable and profitable sports betting system they quickly presume that it is far beyond their capabilities.  They automatically sway towards purchasing picks developed by other handicappers.  And if these picks generate a profit, that is great.  That is an actually system in itself.  A system that profits by piggybacking on another’s system.  The original system (the one that is relied upon, the one that actually makes the selection on what team or teams or person or people to wager on) is, however, most likely built upon solid sports handicapping algorithms.

But what if we want to develop our own system, our own algorithm?  Is it beyond our capabilities?  The answer is no.  It will take time, sometimes much time, but I truly believe it is not beyond our capabilities.  So what are the steps to tackle this assignment?

Step 1:  Identify what type of sporting event you wish to target.  Are you going to target football, baseball, basketball, boxing, mma, hockey, soccer, tennis, the list goes on and on.  What sport appeals to you?  Have you ever watched a game and felt based on this stat or that, you could predict the outcome?

Step 2:  Data, data and data.  You will need data.  You will need to come up with a method or source to collect this data.  Why?  Because history has a way of repeating itself.  Find the historical data you need, analyze it and back test it.  Previously, I wrote a short article on places to find this data for free.  The article is called, Where to Find Historical Data to Craft and Fine-tune a Betting System.  Read it here.  There are other places to find data as well.  Zcode System offer products that offer back testing capabilities.  You may also want to invest in data scraping software.  This type of software will enable you to scrape the data needed from various websites and insert such information directly into a spreadsheet.  Search “data scraping software” in your favorite search engine, and I am sure you will find one that will satisfy your needs.

Step 3:  Now that you found a good resource to obtain the historical data needed, what can you do with it?  Remember that history finds a way of repeating itself.  Key in on a single trend and back test that trend.  Tweak it and then back test again.  Repeat.  The greatest of sports handicapping systems each begin with a single trend, pattern or statistic, and then it takes off from there.  It snowballs.  How well does a certain warm weather team perform in the coldest of climates?  I don’t know but back test it.  Back test the reverse as well, a cold weather team travelling to a warm weather climate.  How well does a team perform after a win or two?  How well does a team perform after a loss?  How well does a team perform after a lackluster offensive performance?  The list of specific scenarios is almost endless.  Get the data needed and back test.

Flaws of algorithms

Oh wait, before you rack up credit card debt, before you go out and purchase some flashy but expensive dream trinket, know that there are still risks involved.  After all, no algorithm is 100% accurate. Not every algorithm you devise will be a winner and make boat loads of cash.  If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it and everyone would rich.

First of all, sportsbooks are not in business because they are stupid.  Sportsbooks hire proficient sports people.  These employees or contractors are paid to monitor these types of techniques.  They will realize when they are vulnerable to a particular trend, and they will adjust a particular line accordingly.

Secondly, sports handicapping algorithms can not pick up on swings in game momentum.  Sports handicapping algorithms can not pick up on the emotions and mindset of the players themselves.  What if the star quarterback goes down to an injury?  What happens when the star hitter gets tossed from the game in the first inning while arguing a strike call?

Thirdly, you may have a great sports handicapping algorithm that took quite a while to develop.  You still need a solid money management system in place to reap any reward.

In Conclusion

While sports handicapping algorithms are far from foolproof, developing a solid one of your own or piggybacking on an already winning algorithm based strategy, is a must in my opinion.  Combine such an algorithm with a solid money management strategy is easier said than done but obtainable.  Nowadays with the information available to us online, with websites like that of Zcode System, with screen scraping software options available, with a solid money management system to abide by, success can be achieved.

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