Should We Evaluate Coaches in Sports Handicapping?

How big of a role do coaches in sports handicapping play?

I have not created a single handicapping system, to this point, that contains coaching statistics involved directly – meaning that I do not have a “better of the two coaches” column in any current spreadsheets I use to handicap a game or match.

No, I currently do not include a column for the winning percentage for the visiting team’s coach.  Nor do I include a column for the home team’s coach.  Nor do I currently keep a track record of each teams’ general manager on any of my current spreadsheets I maintain or use to handicap a match.  But should I?  Maybe in a future trading system, but no guarantee.  Yes, my mind is moving right now – should I, could I, what if?  Well, we will see.

An angle is an angle.  If you find a statistic that helps produce a better betting win percentage, why would you not use it?

Regardless, coaches do have a significant decision-making role during the game, which essentially factors into many other statistics and components I typically utilize.  Every year, we find that there are sports teams that move from one coach to another coach – either recycling coaches from other teams or bringing in some new blood into their equation.

For example, in the 2021 NFL season, which is not completely over yet.  Super Bowl LVI will be played in a week.  Bengals vs. Rams.  Rams favored by 4 at this point.

Already there has been 9 coaching firings or resignations this year in the NFL.  It seems as if I see NFL coaching firings or changes on SportsCenter every other week.

Last year (2020 season) was no different as there were 7 coaching changes in the NFL.

Bill O’Brien was released from the Houston Texans, replacing him was Dan Culley (released the following year).

Dan Quinn was released from the Atlanta Falcons, replacing him was Arthur Smith.

Matt Patricia was released from the Detroit Lions, replacing him was Dan Campbell.

Adam Gase was released from the New York Jets, replacing him was Robert Saleh.

Doug Marrone was released from the Jacksonville Jaguars, replacing him was Urban Meyer (released the following year).

Anthony Lynn was released from the Los Angeles Chargers, replacing him was Brandon Staley.

Doug Pederson was released from the Philadelphia Eagles, replacing him was Nick Sirianni.

College Coaches vs Professional League Coaches in Sports Handicapping

I will admit, I do not have an ounce of coaching talent myself.  I once coached my son’s tee-ball team when he was younger.  Although I never got fired, I’m sure there were parents out there rolling their eyes at some of my in-game decisions.  Like the time I intentionally walked my opponent’s clean-up hitter.  Or the time I chewed out my own leadoff hitter for not taking the first strike.  Yes, I am kidding.  It was only tee-ball.  Let them play.  I didn’t chew anyone out, nor did I intentionally walk a single 6-year-old the entire season.  And as far as taking a pitch in tee-ball, well, that seems fairly difficult to do.

Regardless, college and professional league coaches both have a difficult job to accomplish.  Whether that be in-game decisions (like walking the cleanup hitter) or going for a two-point conversion after a touchdown, or in basketball, drawing that final shot plan out on a clipboard while in a timeout.  Coaches have tough decisions to make throughout each game and the overall season.

In college athletics, however, I believe the coaching staff has a larger role in certain areas.  Off the top of my head, I think about the following:

Recruiting

While the college head coach may not take the primary role in the recruiting process, where the staff may assist and tag-team the endeavor with the coach, the head coach may need to speak to the process, meet with big name recruits to try to persuade the recruit’s decision, and oversee the recruitment process as a whole to ensure it is going in the right direction.

Who I think of as a good example of a well-rounded college basketball recruiter is John Calipari.  At the time of this writing, Mr. Calipari is the head coach for the University of Kentucky.  Before this role, he was the head coach of Memphis and UMASS.  All three college teams went to the Final Four while Mr. Calipari was the head coach.  He is currently ranked as the 17^th most winningest coach in NCAA Division I college basketball history with a winning percentage of over 78%.  Not a bad winning percentage, right?

How do you think his teams constantly consist of players of that high-level caliber?  I would guess, recruiting has much to do with it.

Getting the Team Ready to Start the Season

In the 2020 NFL season, the number of pre-season games was 4.  In 2021, because of the addition of a regular season game (17 game regular season), the number of pre-season games played was 3.  In college football, there is no pre-season.  Of course, there are college teams that play a warmup type game, where their opponents are not of the same caliber, but that game still counts on the regular season record.

In hockey, college teams may play a couple of “exhibition” type games but do not have a pre-season schedule like the NHL who play against teams they will compete with in the regular season.

Without help of a pre-season schedule, the head coach will have less time to evaluate the players and put the team in a position to win with the correct personnel – adjusting game plans to their perceived strengths.  However, many college coaches are asked to do just that.  And many do and do it well.

Assist in the Development of the Student Athlete

I understand that professional athletes have a lot on their minds – their family, their role with the team, taxes (half kidding), etc.  However, most professional athletes probably do not have an academic career to think about as well.  With most college athletes never becoming a professional athlete, academics are oftentimes stressed.

A college coach will often not only guide the student athlete in their collegiate athletic career, but he/she may also help guide the student athlete to balance their academic vs collegiate athletic careers, helping the college athlete stay off the academic ineligibility list and perform best he/she can on the playing field as well as in the classroom.

Assistant Coaches and Sports Handicapping

And what about the assistant coaches?

Many sports commentators mention head coach Bill Belichicks’ coaching tree.  Certainly, the assistant coaches underneath Mr. Belichick played an important role in the New England Patriots winning percentage, however, how did these assistant coaches do when moving to a different team for a head coaching position of their own?

Matt Patricia, for instance, went from Defensive Coach of the Patriots to head coach of the Detroit Lions.  Mr. Patricia had numerous roles within the Patriot organization before becoming the defensive coordinator of the Patriots from the 2012 to the 2017 season.  As the defensive coordinator, the Patriots had 75 wins in the regular season and only recorded 21 regular season losses, winning the Super Bowl 3 times.  A regular season winning percentage of about 78%.

As head coach for the Detroit Lions, Mr. Patricia was only able to record a total of 13 wins and 29 losses – a winning percentage of about 31%.

I would not place all the blame on Mr. Patricia, however, as he only coached the team that was positioned around him.

There are numerous assistant coaches that achieved much success as an assistant coach and later a head coach.  Bill Belichick was once an assistant coach.  In baseball, Alex Cora began coaching as an assistant (bench coach) for the Houston Astros where he helped to win a World Series title.  A year later, as the head coach for the Boston Red Sox, Alex Cora won the World Series again.

Conclusion

Like I mentioned previously, I have never utilized a coaching statistic in any of my handicapping strategies up until this point.  I do feel that coaching is represented on the spread sheets I keep within numerous other columns.  Perhaps, the coaching staff is anonymous (so to speak) in many handicapping strategies.  But they are there.

There is more to a winning football team than the quarterback.  There is more to a winning baseball team than the cleanup hitter.  There is more to a winning soccer team than the striker.  Does a head coach have an important role in the team’s success?  Without doubt.  Perhaps, I should try a few different ideas to see if backtesting a theory can be profitable.

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