Bad Weather Handicapping

Many handicappers utilize weather forecasts within their betting routine.  If the game is being played on a day where a less than ideal weather forecast is assumed, some handicappers may take this into account and include a bad weather handicapping strategy into the mix.

As an example, in the 2021 NFL season (December 6, 2021), the Buffalo Bills, playing at home and favored by approximately 4 points, were playing the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Weather conditions were not ideal to say the least, and the wind was a definite factor.

The Patriots won that game by a score of 14 to 10 with their starting quarterback, Mac Jones, only completing 2 of 3 pass attempts.  What was the over/under of this game?  44 points.

Yes, the weather can influence a team’s strategy going into the game, how the game is played, and ultimately the game’s outcome.  Experienced handicappers can benefit from this.

Weather Conditions That May Play a Factor

Many sports teams play in an indoor, dome/retractable roof or arena type atmosphere – case in point the Atlanta Falcons or Indianapolis Colts in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Rays or Houston Astros in the MLB, and all the NBA and NHL teams (aside from a random outdoor game in the NHL).

That said, there are many games each year for the NFL and MLB that will be played outside – in whatever weather conditions that area may have that day.  Below are a few weather conditions that may be a factor.

The Wind

Above we spoke of the wind playing a significant role in the Bills vs Patriots NFL matchup that day.  In football, the wind can play a significant role in both the kicking game and the passing game.

In baseball, is the wind blowing in or out?  I have heard the phrase “wind aided home run” or “wind knocked that ball down” many times throughout the course of a season.

In MLB, Coors Field in Denver, Colorado (home of the Colorado Rockies) is well known for the wind blowing out, dry air, and altitude of the stadium.  These set of conditions lead to many home runs and runs scored, and Coors Field is often at the top of the list every year for both.

As far as the Colorado Rockies themselves, do they take advantage of this home field nuance?  One interesting statistic I found from the 2021 season was their home W/L record vs their away W/L record.  In 2021, The Colorado Rockies home record was 48-33 or a winning percentage of 59.3%.  Not bad.  While on the road, however, the Colorado Rockies were just 26-54 or a winning percentage of 32.5%.  Not good (unless betting against them).

The Rain

Rain can also affect the way the game is played.  In football, wet conditions can contribute to less passing effectiveness due to the wetness of the ball and visibility of the wide receivers.  The playing surface will also be slower due to the wet conditions.  Both offense and defense will be affected.

In baseball, the rain can be a factor as well.  Players will not have the same grip on a wet ball as they would on a dry ball.  Batters will have more difficulty gripping the bat.  Conditions will no doubt worsen for both teams offensively and defensively in the rain.

The field will be negatively affected as well due to rain.  For this the reason tarps are placed on the field during a rain delay.  These tarps better protect the infield from the rain and better protect the pitching mound and batter’s box as well.

The umpires may come together if the rain begins to fall too hard and the game may be delayed due to weather.  This will hinder both starting pitchers if the wait is too long, and teams may be forced to not have the starting pitchers re-enter the game.

The Snow

In football snowfall will play a factor on the game as well.  Fields goals will be made at a lower percentage rate.  The passing game will decrease if the snowstorm is on the heavier side.

In baseball, due to the seasons the games are played in, snow does not hinder many games.  Every year, however, you will see a game or two played with snowflakes coming down from the sky.  For an outfielder, the task of tracking a white ball in a sky of white snow would be more difficult.

The Heat

In warmer climates, football teams travelling down for an away game may have more issues with extreme heat.  Proper hydration could be of an issue.

In baseball, because the season takes place in warmer months, teams are somewhat used to the heat. Extreme heat, however, can still be a factor.  Pitchers may fatigue quicker.  Players may suffer from heat exhaustion.

The Cold

While watching a baseball game being played in cold weather, have you ever seen some players wearing face shields?  I know I have.

Hitters may not feel the bat in the same way.  They may not be as loose as they typically would be in warm weather games.  The balls will not travel as far in the air due to the cold, thick air.

The pitcher’s grip on the baseball may be affected as well, causing less spin on the ball.  This will also hinder the pitcher’s control.  Pitchers may find it more difficult to warm up in the bull pen, needing more time to get loose.  They may find it more difficult to stay warm when sitting in the dugout watching their team on offense.

The same can be said for a quarterback in football, their grip on the football will be made more difficult.  They may blow into their hands while calling an audible at the line of scrimmage.  They may wear a handwarmer around the waste.

Many players find it more difficult to stay warm and loose during cold weather games.  Football teams playing their home games in warmer environments may find it more difficult to adapt to cold weather conditions.

Kickers may lose some distance on field goal attempts.

Just for kicks, I decided look at 3 NFL teams that have been known to play in frigid temperatures.  Those teams were Green Bay, Buffalo, and Chicago.  I decided to see how they have fared in the 2021 NFL season when playing at home in temperatures at the freezing mark (32 degrees Fahrenheit) or below.  I wanted to see how well each would have done against the spread.

Below are my findings.

12/19/2021 – Buffalo at home against Carolina.  Temperature was 20 degrees.  Spread had Buffalo favored by 14.5.  Buffalo won 31-14.  Result = Win.

1/2/2022 – Buffalo at home against Atlanta.  Temperature was 26 degrees.  Spread had Buffalo favored by 14.5.  Buffalo won 29-15.  Result= Loss.

1/2/2022 – Green Bay at home against Minnesota.  Temperature was 11 degrees.  Spread had Green Bay favored by 13.  Green Bay won 37-10.  Result = Win.

1/2/2022 – Chicago at home against New York Giants.  Temperature was 25 degrees.  Spread had Chicago favored by 6.5.  Chicago won 29-3.  Result = Win.

1/15/2022 – Buffalo at home against New England.  Temperature was 7 degrees.  Spread had Buffalo favored by 4.  Buffalo won 47-17.  Result=Win.

1/22/2022 – Green Bay at home against San Francisco.  Temperature was 15 degrees.  Spread had Green Bay favored by 5.5.  San Francisco won 13-10.  Result = Loss.

Against the spread we would have profited from 4 of the 6 betting opportunities.  If placing money line wagers, we would have had 5 wins and 1 loss.

Conclusion

Of course, I would not throw myself blindly into using the above cold weather handicapping strategy.  Honestly, I just looked at 3 teams that have been known to play cold weather home games for the course of only one season.  If I were to look further into this angle, I would need to backtest a lot more.  I would also investigate other factors.  In the above example, both the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers, were both extremely competitive throughout the course of the season.  Could there be seasons where the two teams were far less effective?  Of course.

That being said, bad weather handicapping is something perhaps worth looking into some more.  Whether looking into cold weather games, rainy weather games, or games being played in extreme heat, I would look at a few different factors, and backtest first.

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