10 Common Bad Behaviors to Avoid in Sports Handicapping

Most of us have daily habits that are hard to break free from, whether that be consuming alcohol too frequently, perhaps smoking or vaping, or even texting and internet surfing too regularly on our shiny smart phones.  Obviously, the same can be said with some habits that many of us (including myself) have fallen victim to in the realm of handicapping sports.  In this article we will discuss a few behaviors to avoid in sports handicapping.

Try to Avoid: Being Inconsistent With Wager Amounts

I found myself guilty of this early on, and of the various behaviors to avoid in sports handicapping, I believe this is an extremely important one.  Instead of strongly sticking with my bankroll management strategy, whether that be a flat betting approach or one with the Kelly Criterion money management strategy in mind, the temptation of being so sure of one team’s matchup has popped up often.  I believe one should stick with the plan and not divert from it, regardless of temptation.  Sometimes, yes, you may have wished you placed more units on a particular game.  Other times, however, you may be happy you did not.  I believe in putting a plan in place and sticking with that plan.  Leave all the could have, would have and should haves for someone else.  For more bankroll management strategies, please click here.

Try to Avoid: Falling for a Good Sales Pitch

I did not intend to have this article progress to a lessons learned type of document, however, here is another topic I have fallen victim to in the past.  I once fell head over heels for the copy of what I believed was a sure thing baseball picks website.  There was no archive of past picks available, but the copy must have been written by a descendant of William Shakespeare himself.  After signing up for the alerts, I found out the site’s author advocated a Martingale approach to bankroll management.  Something I am not a particular fan of.  I also realized within a couple of weeks of following the site’s picks, you would need to use the martingale system to pull off any sort of short-term profit at all from it.  The percentage of winning picks were even less than flipping a coin.

Lesson learned.  I will do much more research in the future regarding such scenarios.  Does the site have an archive page available?  Is there a free trial or a limited and rather inexpensive trial that can be obtained?  If not, I simply check it off the list.

A similar approach may be advocated by telemarketing style handicapping services.  An example of such is found in my article on the topic of 7 Great Sports Handicapping Videos on YouTube.  Hey, such an outfit makes for an entertaining television series, but I like to do some research first before I trust anyone who calls me unsolicited.

Try to Avoid: A Handicapping Service Without an Archive of Past Picks on Its Webpage

I mentioned this above, however I believe it is well worth mentioning once again.  What are the past picks of this handicapping service and how well did they perform?  If they really claim to win 95% of their picks, why not show me what these picks were?  Of course, there could be a few shady services out there that can just archive their winning picks and not document the losing ones.  However, that is plain wrong, and you should be able to recognize this quickly.

Try to Avoid: Hunch Bets

Many if not all of us have had hunches about bets or just about a game or match in particular.  A “hunch” is defined by Oxford Languages as “a feeling or guess based on intuition rather than known facts”.

Do you have a set handicapping system and does this particular match fit into said system?  If not, move on.  Hey, you may find your gut was right this time, but you may also find that your gut was wrong.

I am a firm believer in developing a solid betting model and only wager on events that fit into that model.  That hunch bet you were thinking about – would it be possible to investigate why you had it in the first place?  Was it that the starting quarterback of your favorite team is coming back off an injury and you believe he may be extra motivated?  Was it a UFC fighter who lost his/her last fight and you believe that this small setback will give the fighter extra motivation?  Can these situations be back tested at all?  If so, it may be well worth researching more.  Perhaps your hunch may spark a new, profitable handicapping strategy.  However, until researching more, making a hunch bet is one of the many behaviors to avoid in sports handicapping

Try to Avoid: Using Only One Sportsbook

When first starting out, or if you have had a good run with one particular sportsbook, I know it may be mentally difficult to branch out.  But truthfully, you are not “breaking up” with that particular sportsbook, instead you are just shopping around for a situation where you have more of an advantage wagering with one sportsbook than another for a particular matchup.

Does a particular team or individual contestant have better odds at one sportsbook than another?  Your system may have the New York Yankees winning.  Your go-to sportsbook may have odds of -125.  However, another sportsbook may have a more favorable odds line, say of -110.  If you had access to both, it is obvious which one to go through with this one wager, right?

Bottom line, having the ability to access and bet with multiple sportsbooks gives you an improved chance to win long term.  If possible, this is a no brainer, a sure bet and well worth considering.

Try to Avoid: Chasing Your Losses

Even the best sports handicappers sometimes find themselves in the midst of a losing streak.  Good sports handicappers, however, will not chase losing bets.

I have previously written about the Martingale approach to bankroll management.  However, I personally, do not advocate this style or any variants of this style at all.  My philosophy is that even if a Martingale type system allows you to regain your losses most of the time, but who is to say that you will not eventually lose a bet or string of bets that would be too large to recover from.

Trust your system, back test your system, perhaps tweak your system, but know your system is not full proof.  Losing streaks will occur.  A solid handicapper will not bet the farm when this happens.

Try to Avoid: Wagering When Intoxicated

Try to avoid wagering when intoxicated – seems obvious, right?  I can list quite a few things to avoid doing when intoxicated and, yes, gambling is one of them.

Any habit that clouds your mind and impairs judgment should be done without putting money on the line.  If you want to wager on a game then go out with your friends to a local sports bar, have fun.  Just try not to wager with an impaired thought process.  Betting intoxicated is one of the more obvious but important behaviors to avoid in sports handicapping.

Try to Avoid: Blindly Betting on Favorites

Wow, the Los Angeles Dodgers are -300 favorites but picking them does not fall into any of my handicapping theories.  I know I have spent months if not years developing my strategy, but heck with it.  All those people can’t be wrong.  Let’s put money on the line.

I am sure you know that if you bet on all -300 favorites, you will need to be correct roughly 75% of the time to break even.  And how much would you win if you put $100 down on a -300 favorite?  $33.33.  Is it worth it?  Perhaps if the Los Angeles Dodgers fall into one of your handicapping strategies and theories, it will be worth the wager.  However, it may be more profitable in the long run to bypass this game and stick with your game plan.

Try to Avoid: Not Betting on Favorites Entirely

I hope not to confuse anybody.  I know I mentioned above that one thing to avoid doing is to blindly betting on favorites.  That said, I believe in not bypassing potential profitable bets on favorites altogether.  Does the favorite fit into a solid, back tested strategy?  Is the percentage of picking winners for your strategy greater than the percentage needed to make the play a profitable one? In the above example, would it still make sense to wager on a -300 favorite?  What is the percentage of winners vs losers for your given system?  Breaking down the numbers more, what is the percentage of winning wagers that your particular strategy provides with odds so steep in your favor?  Does your strategy win 80% of the time when betting odds are -300 or greater?

Truth be told, favorites are favored for a good reason.  The bookmakers are not in the business of losing money, and if they believe one team or player has a higher probability of winning than the other, the odds will represent that to some degree.  One should not completely shy away from betting on a favorite.  One should, however, weigh in on the amount a team is favored by and combine that with the percentage of winning bets your well thought out and back tested strategy comes out with.

Try to Avoid: Confusing Loyalty for Your Favorite Team With a Good Betting Opportunity

Yes, I do have favorite sports teams that I enjoy watching.  Would I still bet on them?  Of course.  I will also bet against them.  Trust your strategy.  And don’t blindly wager on your favorite team.  It may make watching a game more interesting, however, blindly wagering on your favorite team can prove more of a passion play than a smart play.

In Conclusion    

Of course, there are many more behaviors to avoid in sports handicapping.  Above are a few I have either fallen victim to in the past or knowingly try to avoid at all costs.  I sincerely hope you found this article helpful.

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