The Key Stats to Analyze When Assessing a Baseball Bullpen for Betting Purposes

When betting on baseball games, many factors come into play, such as starting pitchers, team’s offense and defense, weather conditions, etc. However, one key element often overlooked is the assessing the bullpens in handicapping, which can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game. In this article, we’ll discuss the key stats that baseball bettors need to consider when assessing a bullpen for betting purposes.

Earned Run Average (ERA)

First, I believe the most common statistic used when assessing a pitcher and/or a bullpen is the ERA. Earned Run Average (ERA) is a primary statistic used to evaluate the effectiveness of pitchers in preventing runs. ERA is an essential factor to consider when assessing a bullpen, as it provides vital information about the performance of relievers. A high ERA can be an indication of an ineffective bullpen, while a low ERA suggests a stronger bullpen.

To calculate a bullpen’s ERA (earned run average), you need to divide the total number of earned runs the bullpen has allowed by the total number of innings pitched by the bullpen, and then multiply the result by nine. The formula is as follows:

ERA = (earned runs ÷ innings pitched) x 9

For example, if a bullpen has allowed 30 earned runs in 60 innings pitched, the ERA would be calculated as follows:

ERA = (30 ÷ 60) x 9 ERA = 0.5 x 9 ERA = 4.50

Therefore, the bullpen’s ERA would be 4.50.

Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP)

Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) is another critical metric to analyze when assessing a bullpen and another statistic to consider when analyzing bullpens in handicapping.  WHIP measures the number of baserunners allowed by a pitcher and provides valuable insight into their control and effectiveness. A lower WHIP suggests a more dominant bullpen that’s capable of shutting down opposing batters.

To calculate a bullpen’s WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), you need to divide the total number of walks plus hits allowed by the total number of innings pitched by the bullpen. The formula is as follows:

WHIP = (walks + hits) ÷ innings pitched

For example, if a bullpen has allowed 100 hits and 50 walks in 120 innings pitched, the WHIP would be calculated as follows:

WHIP = (100 + 50) ÷ 120

WHIP = 1.25

Therefore, the bullpen’s WHIP would be 1.25.

The strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB ratio)

The strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB ratio) is a metric that evaluates the number of strikeouts versus the number of walks issued by a pitcher. When assessing a bullpen, a higher K/BB ratio is generally preferred, as it suggests a more dominant and reliable bullpen. A lower K/BB ratio can indicate that the bullpen is prone to giving up walks and has difficulty striking out batters.

To calculate a bullpen’s K/BB ratio (strikeout to walk ratio), you need to divide the total number of strikeouts by the total number of walks issued by the bullpen. The formula is as follows:

K/BB ratio = strikeouts ÷ walks

For example, if a bullpen has recorded 200 strikeouts and issued 50 walks, the K/BB ratio would be calculated as follows:

K/BB ratio = 200 ÷ 50 K/BB ratio = 4

Therefore, the bullpen’s K/BB ratio would be 4.

Left-Handed/Right-Handed Splits

Another factor one could consider is the left-handed and right-handed splits of a bullpen. This refers to the effectiveness of the bullpen against batters of different handedness. For instance, if a bullpen has a significant weakness against left-handed batters, it could be exploited by teams with strong left-handed hitters. Therefore, analyzing left-handed/right-handed splits is essential when assessing a bullpen for betting purposes.

Saves

Saves are a statistic that measures the number of games a relief pitcher successfully closes out, preserving a win for their team. Although saves alone aren’t necessarily an indication of a strong bullpen, they can be a useful metric to consider when assessing the reliability of a team’s closer or setup man. Therefore, looking at the number of saves can provide valuable insight when assessing a bullpen for betting purposes.

Inherited Runners

Inherited runners are runners on base when a relief pitcher enters the game. When analyzing a bullpen, it’s essential to consider how well relievers perform when inheriting runners, as it can be an indication of their ability to perform under pressure. A bullpen that’s prone to allowing inherited runners to score could be an indication of a weak or inexperienced bullpen. Therefore, bettors should analyze inherited runners’ statistics to assess the bullpen’s reliability.

Overall Bullpen Usage

Finally, it’s important to consider the overall usage of a bullpen when assessing it for betting purposes. A bullpen that’s overworked and has been used frequently in recent games may be more prone to fatigue and giving up runs. Conversely, a bullpen that’s well-rested may be more effective and capable of shutting down opposing batters. Therefore, analyzing overall bullpen usage is critical when assessing a bullpen for betting purposes.

Conclusion

When betting on baseball, analyzing a bullpen is an essential factor to consider, and there are many key statistics to look at. From ERA and WHIP to K/BB ratio, left-handed/right-handed splits, saves, inherited runners, and overall bullpen usage, there are many factors to consider when assessing a bullpen for betting purposes. By analyzing these metrics, bettors can gain valuable insight into the performance and reliability of a bullpen.

Sure, some of the statistics may be difficult to find; however, the internet is a big place and most if not all the stats you need can be found somewhere.  Start with some of the basic, go to type websites utilized when handicapping baseball games – websites like mlb.com, baseball-reference.com, espn.com, Rotowire.com, and FanGraphs.com.

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