What Role Do Field Goal Kickers Play in Sports Handicapping?

In this article, let us look at kickers in sports handicapping?  How important are they really?

When younger and participating in my first fantasy football draft, my friend drafted a field goal kicker for his first round pick.  Ode to the immense laughter, jaw drops and sarcastic jokes that followed.  This was good for me because I drafted just before him, and my first round draft pick came with incredible scrutiny as well.  Pressure was off, I thought.  I also took a mental note, when drafting your fantasy football team, selecting a field goal kicker with your first choice will come with much scrutiny.

That said, evaluating kickers in sports handicapping is an oftentimes overlooked step.  Considering the fact that field goal kickers are commonly placed into a game situation with an immediate opportunity to place points on the board, should this really be as ignored as it is in most cases?

Are Field Goal Kickers Really That Important?

I remember, in elementary school, my local NFL team was offering open tryouts for a field goal kicker.  My friend and I, both still living in a world of imagination and excitement, took our football to the nearest little league baseball field.  There we practiced kicking the ball from the pitchers mound over the backstop.  If we made couple kicks in a row, we would move it back a few feet and kick from there.  Looking back, unless my favorite NFL team was looking for a fourth grader proficient in the art of the unintentional onside kick, I had zero shot at all.  My local pop warner team would probably shake their head no as well.

That said, in my opinion, the role of field goal kickers in sports handicapping is worth looking into further.

Do you remember or have seen Adam Vinatieri’s famous snow kick in the 2001 AFC divisional playoffs?  He made two incredibly clutch field goals in the game, one to tie with under a minute left in regulation and another to win the game in overtime.  You should look up the snow kick on YouTube if you have yet to see it.  Here is a link.

I tried to look to see what the actual point spread of that game really was but without much luck.  The closest I could find had the Patriots favored between 2.5 to 3 points.  If this is true, you could easily see the role Adam Vinatieri played on many sports handicapper’s bankrolls.

Four Facts About Field Goal Kickers

It is true, football field goal kickers simply do not get enough credit.  The NFL, at one point, even looked into removing the extra point from games, claiming it has become too automatic.  Instead, they increased the distance needed for the point after attempt.  Below are four facts about field goal kickers and their contributions to both an NFL game and the pockets of sports handicappers.

1. Field Goal Kickers Always Seem to Lead League in Scoring

Here is a list of the NFL scoring leaders from the year 2009 to 2019 (the last 10 seasons played to completion at the time of this article).  Every one of the scoring leaders were field goal kickers.

2009 – Nate Kaeding – Position Kicker – Points 146

2010 – David Akers – Position Kicker – Points 143

2011 – David Akers – Position Kicker – Points 166

2012 – Stephen Gostkowski – Position Kicker – Points 153

2013 – Stephen Gostkowski – Position Kicker – Points 158

2014 – Stephen Gostkowski – Position Kicker – Points 156

2015-  Stephen Gostkowski – Position Kicker – Points 151

2016 – Matt Bryant – Position Kicker – Points 158

2017 – Greg Zuerlein – Position Kicker – Points 158

2018 – Ka’imi Fairbairn – Position Kicker – Points 150

2019 – Harrison Butker – Position Kicker – Points 147

2. Chances of Winning or Losing by 3 Points or Less

Did you know that a 3 point margin of victory is the most common outcome for both college and professional football games?

Because a field goal is equal to 3 points, let us look at the amount of games that had a margin of victory of 3 points or less.  In the 2019 NFL season, there was a total of 267 games played in both the regular season and playoffs.  Of those 267 games played, 52 of them were decided by 3 points or less.  That is a little over 19% of all games played ending in a 3 point or less margin of victory.

3. Coaches Decisions Can Be Influenced by Their Field Goal Kicker’s Past Performance

Have you ever watched a game where the offense had the ball 4^th and long and inside the fringe of a long field goal?  I have seen some coaches attempt the long field goal, knowing that if they miss it, the opposition gets the ball with good field position.  I have seen some coaches attempt to drive the opponent offsides with a hard snap count, only to take a delay of game penalty when unsuccessful, later punting the ball.  I have also seen coaches elect to go for a first down, leaving their field goal kicker on the sideline and their offense on the field.

Of course, game situations do somewhat dictate what a football coach decides to do in situations like these.  However, having a historically accurate field goal kicker with a big leg, also plays a role.

4. Better Winning Percentage With a Solid Field Goal Kicker

Looking again at the scoring leaders (mentioned above) from the 2009 thru 2019 season:

2009 – Nate Kaeding played for the San Diego Chargers.  The Chargers were 13 and 3 that year, finishing first in the AFC West.

2010 – David Akers played for the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles were 10 and 6 that year, finishing first in the NFC East.

2011 – David Akers changed teams from the year before, and ended up kicking for the San Francisco 49ers who went 13 and 3, finishing 1^st NFC West.  The Eagles (David Akers’ former team) slipped out of the playoffs with a 8 and 8 record that year.

2012 – Stephen Gostkowski played for the New England Patriots.  The Patriots were 12 and 4 that year, finishing first in the AFC East.

2013 – Stephen Gostkowski played for the New England Patriots.  The Patriots were 12 and 4 that year, again finishing first in the AFC East.

2014 – Stephen Gostkowski played for the New England Patriots.  The Patriots were 12 and 4 that year, again finishing first in the AFC East, winning the Super Bowl this season.

2015 – Stephen Gostkowski played for the New England Patriots.  The Patriots were 12 and 4 that year, again finishing first in the AFC East.

2016 – Matt Bryant played for the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons were 11 and 5 that year, finishing 1^st in the NFC South and making it to the Super Bowl.

2017 –  Greg Zuerlein played for the LA Rams.  The Rams were 11 and 5 that year, finishing 1^st in the NFC West.

2018 – Ka’imi Fairbairn played for the Houston Texans.  The Texans were 11 and 5 that year, finishing 1^st in the AFC South.

2019 – Harrison Butker played for the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chiefs were 12 and 4 that year, finishing 1^st in the AFC West and winning the Super Bowl.

Conclusion

Kickers in sports handicapping – given a team’s winning percentage when a solid field goal kicker is in play, it is a hard to ignore the angle.  Is the success of the team dependent to some degree on the field goal kicker, or are the stats of a field goal kicker solely dependent on the offensive team’s ability?  Probably a bit of both.

Another odd statistic – just like the 10 seasons depicted above, where the top field goal kicker (pointwise) all played for a first place team.  In the 2017 season, 10 teams missed more than 20% of field goal attempts.  None of these teams made the playoffs that year.

Like this article?  Pin it on Pinterest!