NHL Handicapping with Opening and Closing Lines

In NHL wagering (and handicapping in all sports really), gaining an edge is essential. One potentially powerful strategy is to leverage the insights provided by opening and closing lines. Let’s break down the fundamentals of NHL line movement betting.

Opening Lines: This is where the journey begins. This is when sportsbooks release initial odds for upcoming NHL matchups. These opening lines serve as a foundation.  They reflect the bookmakers’ first assessment of each team’s strengths and probabilities for the upcoming matchup.

Closing Lines: As game time approaches, these lines evolve based on various factors such as public betting, expert opinions, injuries, and more. The closing lines encapsulate the final odds available just before the puck drops.

Unraveling Line Movement Dynamics

So why would a line move?  Well, sportsbooks are in business to make money.  They want to keep a balanced book to guarantee a profit.  Once the betting line is open to the public, the line will move one way or the other depending on where (or for what team) money is being wagered.

Reasons For Line Movement

Betting Volume: The overall volume of bets on a particular side can impact the moneyline. If a majority of bets are on one team, sportsbooks may adjust the odds to encourage betting on the other side.

Expert Opinions: Moves in the moneyline can also be influenced by respected bettors, known as “sharps,” who place significant wagers, causing sportsbooks to adjust odds to mitigate risk.

Injuries and Team News: News about key players being injured or returning to the lineup can also cause significant line movements as oddsmakers adjust the perceived strength of the teams.

Market Adjustments: Oddsmakers constantly reassess and adjust lines based on new information, ensuring that the odds accurately reflect the current perceptions of team strengths and weaknesses.

November 23, 2022, NHL Money Lines

Let us look at a day in NHL line movement betting, we will use the games played on November 23, 2022, and we will utilize the open and close lines from sportsbookreviewsonline.com.  I selected to look further at this day’s games at random. How would we have done if wagering on teams with favorable line movement (favorable meaning the line has moved in the direction of money flowing in that team’s favor).  We would have not wagered if the opening and closing lines did not both move in one team’s favor (if the 2 lines remained the same throughout).

Game 1

NY Rangers open -170, close -155 vs Anaheim Ducks open +145, close +140

Here, we would have wagered on the Anaheim Ducks as an underdog (+140).

The result: Anaheim Ducks won by a score of 3-2.  If we had placed $100 on the Ducks winning, we would have won $140.

Game 2

St. Louis Blues open -180, close -135 vs Buffalo Sabres open +150, close +125

Here, we would have wagered on the Buffalo Sabres as an underdog (+125).

The result: Buffalo Sabres won by a score of 6-2.  If we had placed $100 on the Sabres winning, we would have won $125.

Game 3

Montreal Canadiens open -105, close +110 vs Columbus Blue Jackets open -115, close -120

Here, we would have wagered on the Columbus Blue Jackets as a favorite (-120).

The result: Columbus Blue Jackets lost by a score of 3-1.  If we had placed $100 on the Blue Jackets winning, we would have lost.

Game 4

Nashville Predators open -110, close +107 vs Detroit Red Wings open -110, close -117

Here, we would have wagered on the Detroit Red Wings as a favorite (-117).

The result: Detroit Red Wings won by a score of 3-0.  If we had placed $100 on the Red Wings winning, we would have won $85.47.

Game 5

Toronto Maple Leafs open +120, close +112 vs NJ Devils open -140, close -122

Here, we would have wagered on the Toronto Maple Leafs as an underdog (+112).

The result: Toronto Maple Leafs won by a score of 2-1.  If we would have placed $100 on the Maple Leafs winning, we would have won $112.

Game 6

San Jose Sharks open +135 close +160 vs Seattle Kraken open -160, close -180

Here, we would have wagered on the Seattle Kraken as a favorite (-180).

The result: Seattle Kraken won by a score of 8-5.  If we had placed $100 on the Kraken winning, we would have won $55.56.

Game 7

Philadelphia Flyers open +185 close +215 vs Washington Capitals open -225, close -245

Here, we would have wagered on the Washington Capitals as a favorite (-245).

The result: Washington Capitals won by a score of 3-2.  If we had placed $100 on the Kraken winning, we would have won $40.82.

So, from above, we would have wagered on a total of 7 games based on the NHL line movement betting angle.  We would have won 6 of those games.  Our total winnings for the day would have been $458.85.

In Conclusion

As demonstrated by the November 23, 2022, NHL money lines, we saw how wagering on teams with favorable line movement could yield profitable outcomes.

Please remember that this is just one day’s results.  Please backtest the NHL line movement betting angle thoroughly if you wish to look into this angle in more detail.  However, utilizing opening and closing lines as a basis for NHL handicapping can be a valuable tool in your betting arsenal. The dynamics of line movement provide a window into the ever-changing landscape of public sentiment, expert opinions, and key team developments.

It’s crucial to recognize, however, that no strategy guarantees success in the volatile world of sports betting. The outcomes presented here are based on a single day’s results, and individual game dynamics can vary. As such, thorough backtesting and ongoing analysis are essential for refining and adapting your approach over time.

In conclusion, NHL handicapping with opening and closing lines provides a structured and data-driven approach to decision-making in sports betting. By understanding the reasons behind line movements and strategically placing bets based on these insights, bettors can enhance their chances of success. Remember, the key to long-term profitability lies in continuous refinement, learning from both successes and setbacks, and staying informed about the ever-changing landscape of the NHL.

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