Parlay vs. Moneyline: Which Bet Will Boost Your Winnings?

Previously, I wrote an article about sports handicapping parlays.  At the time I was not a fan of these types of wagers.  You can read the article here – Sports Betting Parlay.  When I wrote this original article, I was 100% not a fan of betting parlays.

I am still not a fan entirely.  However, there have been strategies I have backtested that would have still turned a profit while wagering on sports handicapping parlays.  One strategy – a baseball handicapping strategy – would have won at approximately a 40% clip from 2012 through 2023.  This strategy would have had 80 wins and 119 losses in that timeframe, pulling in a decent return.

With this information in mind, I decided to look further into sports handicapping parlays.  If wagering on parlays is your idea of fun and would like to learn a little more on the subject, I hope you gain some insight with this article.

What Is a Parlay Wager?

Simply put, a parlay wager is when one selects two or more wagers and ties them together into a single bet.  If any of the multiple wagers tied together loses, then the entire parlay loses.  If all wagers in the parlay win, the parlay wager wins as a whole and will gain a higher payout than wagering on each bet simultaneously.

How Is a Parlay Payout Calculated?

To calculate the potential payout for a two-team parlay, one would:

1. Convert the odds to decimal format.
2. Multiply the decimal odds of the teams together.
3. Subtract 1 from the result.
4. Multiply by your stake to find the potential payout.

Step 1 – Convert the Odds to Decimal Format:

Take the odds for each team and convert them to decimal odds format.

For example:

Team A: Odds of +150 would be converted to 2.50 (2.50 is the decimal odds for +150).

Team B: Odds of -120 would be converted to 1.83 (1.83 is the decimal odds for -120).

How do we know what the decimal odds are?

Converting American odds (+150, -120, etc.) to decimal odds can be done using the following formula:

Decimal Odds = (Positive American Odds / 100) + 1

So, for +150 odds:

Decimal Odds = (150 / 100) + 1

Decimal Odds = 1.5 + 1

Decimal Odds = 2.5

And for -120 odds, it’s a little different because they represent the amount you need to bet to win $100.  We remove the negative sign for the calculation.  -120 becomes 120 in the below equation.

Decimal Odds = (100 / 120) + 1

Decimal Odds = (5/6) + 1

Decimal Odds = 1.83333333333

Step 2 – Multiply the decimal odds of the teams together

Multiply the decimal odds of the two teams together:

2.50 (Team A) * 1.83333333333 (Team B) = 4.58333333333

Step 3 – Subtract 1

Subtract 1 from the result in step 2:

4.58333333333 – 1 = 3.58333333333

Step 4 – Multiply by the Stake

Finally, multiply the result by your stake (the amount you’re betting). Let’s say you’re betting $100:

3.58333333333 * $100 = $358.33

So, for a two-team parlay with $100 bet on Team A at +150 and Team B at -120, the potential payout would be $358.33 if both teams win. This includes your initial stake of $100 plus a profit of $258.33.

Parlay Payouts vs Placing Moneyline Wagers

Given the above example we have 2 teams – a +150 moneyline underdog team we like in the first game, and a -120 moneyline favorite team playing in a different game.  We combine both teams in a parlay wager.  If we win the wager, we gain $258.33 on a $100 wager.

If we lose even one of the 2 games in the 2 team Parlay wager, we lose the entire bet of $100.

Now, let us approach the same two teams bet separately in 2 moneyline wagers.  If both teams win, betting $100 on each separately, we gain $150 on our +150 underdog and $83.33 on the -120 moneyline favorite.  This is a profit of $233.33.

So, we would have made $25 more if we put the two wagers together in a single $100 bet.  However, please keep in mind that we placed $200 total on the 2 wagers via betting them separately and spent only $100 on parlay wager.

Also, let us say that only one wager would have won this day.  We would have pulled in a profit of $50 if our +150 moneyline underdog won and our -120 moneyline favorite lost that day.  We would have lost the entire sum of $100 if we had placed both games in a parlay wager.

On the other hand, if our +150 underdog had lost and the -120 moneyline favorite won, our profits (or losses) would be the following:

If combining in a parlay, we would lose our entire $100 bet.

If betting each team separately as two moneyline wagers we would still have lost money but only $16.67 (as compared to $100 amount of the entire parlay wager).

For our last example, let us say both teams lost that day.  Both the +150 underdog and the -120 favorite.  If betting a parlay, we would again lose the entire $100.  However, if betting on them separately, we would have lost a sum of $200.

Conclusion

Although I still have not yet attempted to build a system based solely on winning parlay bets, I have stumbled on one occasionally.  Thus far, with profitable annual outcomes.   My thinking is, if it works, it works.  However, I still see the risk involved with making parlay wagers (and really any wager at all).  Wager responsibly.

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