Pythagorean Theorem in Sports Betting

Ode to the Pythagorean Theorem. Originally, named after a Greek mathematician named Pythagoras, the Pythagorean Theorem states that by knowing the length of 2 sides of a right triangle, we can then calculate the length of the remaining side mathematically and fairly easily.  While some have learned this great equation in math class a few lifetimes ago, the Pythagorean Theorem is also being used, nowadays, in sports betting.  Now, some will debate who originally came up with this grand theory. Was it, in fact Pythagoras a few thousand years ago, or did it actually exist beforehand. Who knows? And because we don’t have a stake in the outcome of that argument, la-la-la-la I don’t care and la-la-la-la I am not listening to you. For our sake here, a gentleman name Bill James is actually credited for using this theory to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team should win.

So what is the Pythagorean Theorem in Sports Betting

Well, the actual Pythagorean equation (related to sports handicapping) is as follows:

Win Ratio = runs scored²  / (runs scored²  + runs allowed²)

So, as an example the Pond City Bluegills played a 162 game season in and scored  800 runs and had 700 runs scored against them. The Pythagorean equation would look like the following:

Win Percentage = 800² / (800² + 700²)

Win Percentage = 640,000 / (640,000 +  490,000)

Win Percentage = 0.5664 or roughly 56.64%

So, the Pythagorean theorem estimates the Pond City Bluegills should have won approximately 92 games that season.  Not a bad guesstimate.

Pythagorean Theorem (Alternative Calculations)

Over time, some have tweaked the formula to try to maintain a more accurate win percentage.  For instance, baseball-reference.com currently modifies the exponent of 2 in the formula and uses 1.83 as the exponent instead.  Does that sentence make enough sense? It did when I wrote it.  Anyway, based on our beloved Pond City Bluegills scoring 897 runs and allowing 697 runs in a 162 game season, the equation would look like the following.

Win Percentage = 800^1.83 / (800^1.83 + 700^1.83)

Win Percentage = 205,425.653 / (205,425.653 + 160,890.134)

Win Percentage = 0.5608 or roughly 56.08%

Pythagorean Theorem Used in Football, Basketball and Hockey

Many handicappers are beginning to utilize the Pythagorean theorem in other sports as well.  Along with those baseball handicappers out there, others use this theorem to evaluate football, basketball and hockey. Using points allowed and given up in the same manner as runs scored and allowed.

In Football, the exponent most used is 2.37. In basketball, a gentleman named Daryl Morey adapted this theory and utilized an exponent of 13.91. And the exponent in the hockey based calculation remains somewhere around 2.

 

Further Reading

Are there any printed books available on Pythagorean Theorem?  Well, while I have not yet found a printed book that solely dives into the subject, there are a few good books that utilize the Pythagorean Theorem as part of a more robust strategy.  Two good ones are below.

• Baseball Betting for Profit.  Author: Eric Strasser. 

• Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball.  Author: Joe Pita.

In Conclusion

In Conclusion, far removed from the chalkboards and white boards of our school rooms, the Pythagorean Theory is currently being utilized in sports handicapping.  Was that the intention of Pythagoras or whomever came up with this equation way back in the day?  Going to guess no on that one.  Why? Well, because the game of baseball wasn’t said to be invented until 1839 by Mr. Abner Doubleday and some say Pythagoras came up with this theory….(umm, obviously just kidding around here).

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