Sabermetrics in Baseball Betting Strategies

Baseball handicapping has changed over the years. It has grown up quite a bit with more data available to us. Traditional stats like batting average and ERA used to be the gold standard. Now, however, many serious handicappers heavily rely on sabermetrics in baseball betting strategies. These advanced stats give a clearer picture of a player’s true value. With the right approach, bettors can use sabermetrics to gain an edge.

What Is Sabermetrics?

Simply put, sabermetrics is the term often used for the statistical analysis of baseball. It goes beyond basic stats like home runs and RBIs. Instead, it attempts to measure a player’s actual impact on winning games. The term comes from SABR (Society for American Baseball Research). Bill James, a baseball writer and historian, popularized it in the 1970s.

The History of Sabermetrics

Bill James introduced the concept of sabermetrics in his Baseball Abstracts. He believed that traditional stats failed to measure a player’s real value. His work caught the attention of front offices. For instance, The Oakland Athletics, led by Billy Beane, famously applied sabermetrics in the early 2000s. This “Moneyball” approach helped them compete with big-budget teams. Today, nearly every MLB team uses sabermetrics to some degree.

Key Sabermetric Calculations

Sabermetrics includes many advanced stats. Each stat measures a different aspect of performance. Here are some key ones:

OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging)

This statistic measures a batter’s ability to get on base and hit for power. OPS combines a player’s ability to get on base with their power-hitting ability. It is calculated by adding On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG), giving a single number that reflects both aspects of a hitter’s performance.

The below values are what many use to determine a hitters ability when using OPS.

Below .700 = Below average hitter

.700 – .800 = Average hitter

.800 – .900 = Above-average hitter

.900+ = Elite hitter

1.000+ = MVP-level performance

wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)

This statistic adjusts OPS for the true value hit types. Unlike OPS, which treats OBP and SLG equally, wOBA accounts for the belief that extra-base hits contribute more to scoring runs than walks or singles.

The below values are what many use to determine a hitters ability when using wOBA.

Below .300 = Poor hitter

.310 – .320 = Below average

.320 – .340 = Average

.340 – .370 = Above average

.370 – .400 = Great hitter

.400+ = Elite/MVP-level

WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

The WAR stat estimates a player’s overall value compared to an average replacement-level player (a minor league or bench player). It is used to evaluate overall player value, combining offense, defense, and baserunning for position players, and performance for pitchers.

The below values are what many use to determine a players ability when using WAR.

0 WAR = A replacement-level player (easily replaceable minor leaguer).

1-2 WAR = Role player / Bench player.

2-3 WAR = Solid starter.

3-4 WAR = Above-average player.

4-5 WAR = All-Star level.

5-6 WAR = MVP candidate.

6+ WAR = Elite, superstar level.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)

This statistic attempts to measure a pitcher’s effectiveness based only on strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed. It is based solely on outcomes the pitcher can control, and the overall idea is to isolate the pitcher’s actual skill set rather than the influence of their fielders.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching)

Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) attempts to improve upon FIP (mentioned above) by normalizing home run rates to reflect the league-average HR/FB (home run per fly ball) ratio. This stat assumes that pitchers don’t have complete control over home runs and instead uses the league-average HR/FB rate to estimate how many home runs a pitcher “should have” allowed. Some believe xFIP is a better indicator than FIP because it reduces the randomness associated with home runs.

The below values are what many use to determine a pitcher’s ability when using both FIP and xFIP.

Below 3.00 = Elite, Cy Young-level pitching

3.00 – 3.50 = Excellent pitcher

3.50 – 4.00 = Above-average pitcher

4.00 – 4.50 = League-average pitcher

4.50 – 5.00 = Below-average pitcher

Above 5.00 = Poor pitcher

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play)

BABIP measures a player’s batting average on balls put into the field of play (not including strikeouts or home runs). As an example, if one player went 2 for 5 on the day with one homerun and one strike out, that player’s BAPIP would be represented as 1 for 3 or .333, because it will not consider the single homerun or the single strike out on that day.

The league-average BABIP is typically around .300, though it can fluctuate slightly year to year.

The below values are what many use to illustrate BABIP in terms of both batters and pitchers.

For Batters:

Above .330 = Likely getting lucky or making elite contact (line-drive hitters).

Around .300 = Typical, the average BABIP.

Below .270 = Likely unlucky or making weak contact (pop-ups or grounders).

For Pitchers:

Above .320 = Likely experiencing bad luck or poor defense.

Around .300 = Normal BABIP.

Below .280 = Likely benefiting from either good luck or strong defense.

K/BB Ratio (Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio)

Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio (K/BB) measures a pitcher’s ability to record strike outs compared to issuing walks. It is a simple but highly effective stat for evaluating a pitcher’s command and control over their pitches. A higher K/BB ratio indicates excellent control and overall dominance over hitters, while a lower K/BB ratio would indicate either poor command, or an inability to generate enough strikeouts.

As an example, when comparing two pitchers, let’s say one pitcher has 200 strikeouts and 40 walks (K/BB ratio of 5.00 or 200 ÷ 40). Another pitcher with 150 strikeouts and 75 walks (K/BB ratio of 2.00 or 150 ÷ 75). In this case, the first pitcher would be considered far superior in terms of control and overall efficiency.

The below values are what many use to determine a pitcher’s ability when using K/BB.

Below 2.00 = Poor control (likely struggles with walks)

2.00 – 3.00 = Average control

3.00 – 4.00 = Good control

4.00 – 5.00 = Excellent control

Above 5.00 = Elite, Cy Young-caliber control

WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched)

WHIP measures how many base runners a pitcher allows per inning through walks and hits. It is to many a key indicator of pitching effectiveness and control. A lower WHIP means fewer baserunners, indicating better performance. It is often used alongside ERA and K/BB to evaluate a pitcher’s dominance and efficiency.

Interpreting WHIP:

Below 1.00 = Elite (Ace-level pitcher)

1.00 – 1.10 = Excellent

1.10 – 1.30 = Average

1.30 – 1.50 = Below Average

Above 1.50 = Poor (Allows too many baserunners)

ISO (Isolated Power)

ISO (Isolated Power) measures a hitter’s raw power by calculating how often they generate extra-base hits (doubles, triples, and home runs) per at-bat. The idea is to remove singles from the equation, and by only focusing on extra-base hits, we can better distinguish a player’s ability to hit for power.

Interpreting ISO:

Below .100 = Weak power hitter

.100 – .150 = Moderate power

.150 – .200 = Solid power hitter

.200 – .250 = Strong power hitter

Above .250 = Elite power hitter

Barrel Rate

Barrel rate is the percentage of balls hit with the ideal combination of launch angle and exit velocity. Many believe this tends to yield to a higher likelihood of extra-base hits and/or home runs.

A launch angle between 26-30 degrees is what some say is ideal for power, and many look for an exit velocity of at least 98 mph.

Interpreting Barrel Rate:

Below 5% = Weak contact hitter

5% – 8% = Average power

8% – 12% = Above-average power

12%+ = Elite power hitter

Using Sabermetrics in Baseball Betting Strategies

Handicappers can leverage sabermetrics in baseball betting strategies to identify value bets that traditional metrics may overlook. While some handicappers already incorporate advanced analytics, the majority likely rely on conventional stats like batting average and ERA. This can lead to a potential edge for those willing to dig deeper into advanced metrics such as wOBA, FIP, or Barrel Rate.

Sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball-Reference offer free sabermetric data. Handicappers can track these advanced stats to spot both overlooked opportunities or trends.

As an example, let us say we have two pitchers: one with a 3.50 ERA and another with a 4.20 ERA. Most handicappers will favor the 3.50 ERA pitcher. But what if their FIPs are 4.80 and 3.60? The second pitcher now actually seems to have an advantage, and we can use this new way of perceiving the game to collect more wins at better odds than most.

Possible Baseball Betting Strategies Using Sabermetrics

By incorporating sabermetrics into a handicapping routine, bettors can move beyond “surface-level” stats, be able to spot any inefficiencies in the market, and make better data-driven wagers with a higher expected value.

Below are just a few possible handicapping ideas – none of which have been backtested.

Fading Overrated Pitchers Using FIP & xFIP

The vast majority of bettors rely on ERA. Instead, using FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) or xFIP (Expected FIP) may help identify pitchers who are outperforming or underperforming their true ability.

Potential Strategy: Look to wager against pitchers with a low ERA but a significantly higher FIP/xFIP. On the other hand, back pitchers with a high ERA but a much lower FIP/xFIP, as they may be better than their perceived stats suggest.

Targeting Power Hitters in High-Scoring Games Using ISO & Barrel Rate

Teams with high ISO (Isolated Power) and Barrel Rates generate more extra-base hits and home runs, which increases run production.

Potential Strategy: In totals betting (Over/Under), perhaps try targeting games where both teams feature hitters with above-average ISO and Barrel Rates, especially in hitter-friendly ballparks or against pitchers with high HR/9 (home runs per nine innings). This increases the likelihood of overs.

Betting on Undervalued Offenses Using wOBA & BABIP

As discussed above, wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) provides a more accurate measure of offensive production than batting average or OPS. Meanwhile, BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) can indicate if a team has been lucky or unlucky at the plate.

Potential Strategy: Look for teams with high wOBA but a low BABIP, as they may have underperformed due to bad luck and could see a rebound in productivity. These teams may very well be undervalued in moneyline or run-line wagers, offering solid betting opportunities.

Conclusion

Sabermetrics in baseball betting strategies provides a powerful edge. Traditional stats don’t always reflect the true performance in players and teams. By using advanced metrics such as  wOBA, FIP, and WAR, handicappers can develop more data driven strategies and make consistently smarter wagers.

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