The Role of Injuries in Sports Handicapping

Obviously, I am not a sports injury enthusiast.  In my younger days, playing amateur athletics, I succumbed to some injuries myself and none were fun.  I am obviously not hyping injury reports but, in terms of sports handicapping, injuries are a factor that some handicappers pay particular attention to.  Injuries, especially to key players, can definitely alter the betting market, and they are something we should make ourselves aware of.

Where to See Injury Information

Some sports leagues are more transparent than others in regards to reporting injuries.  The NFL, for instance, is very open when letting the public know who is probable, questionable, doubtful or completely out for the game.  Other leagues are not as open, however.  So, assuming the star player isn’t your neighbor who you noticed wearing an orthopedic boot on his/her foot while picking up a food delivery at the front door, where can we find solid injury information?  Here are a few good websites for this information.

1. Rotoworld.com – Rotoworld was originally designed for fantasy sports enthusiasts, however, their injury reports are solid and can be used for sports handicapping.  Rotoworld displays injury reports for the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB and Premier League Soccer.
2. CBSSports.com – Another site to find injury information is CBSSports.com.  Just select the sport you wish to view injuries for and, in the drop down menu, choose the injury selection.
3. ESPN.com
4. DonBest.com – This is another website that lists injury reports, and I also found reports for some sporting events that are not reported elsewhere.

Situations Where an Injury Report Can Become a Key Handicapping Mechanism

While some handicappers and handicapping systems will simply pass on a match with too many key players out due to the injury bug, others will try to capitalize on the situation.  What are some of the possible angles when sports handicapping injuries?

Well, for one, the market may over adjust the lines due to an injured player.

Can the Philadelphia Eagles really win without their stud starting quarterback?  In 2017, they did just that, starting quarterback Carson Wentz went down, and backup Nick Foles took them to the Super Bowl and won.  And how about the New England Patriots’ 3^rd string quarterback?  A year before losing the Superbowl to the above mentioned Philadelphia Eagles, New England was placed in the uncomfortable position of starting their 3^rd string quarterback (Jacoby Brissett) in week 3 of the regular season.  They ended up beating the Houston Texans that evening by a score of 27-0.

Another spin on the injury report may include the team of the injured player’s willingness and focus to compensate for the missing player.  It is sometimes believed that they will work harder during practice and have a game plan for the backup to be successful?  The same can be true with the opposition.  Would the injury distract them in some fashion, knowing that they will face different personnel?

Lastly, does the injury report have clusters of injured players at certain key positions?  Quarterbacks?  Is the offensive line compromised with injury?

Can the Injury Report be Misleading?

Above I mentioned a few angles some sports handicappers use in an attempt to have the injury report work in their favor.  However, there are some handicappers who find an injury report to be potentially and intentionally misleading.  At one point, it seemed as if the New England Patriots placed then quarterback Tom Brady on the injury report every week – yet every week he would end up playing (and end up playing very well despite being injured).

The NBA has also been scrutinized in the past for misleading (or incomplete) injury reports.  Lebron James, as an example, did not appear on the injury report during the NBA finals in 2018  despite a hand injury he suffered earlier in the series.  A similar scenario occurred in the Western Conference Finals in 2019, where Damian Lillard played a game with an undisclosed rib injury, shooting 5 for 18 in the loss.

Two Opposing Sides of the Injury Report Argument

While most handicappers would obviously desire more information than less when it comes down to sports handicapping injuries, the opposing side would claim that the rights of players to keep the details of their own health issues to themselves and only disclose them when/if they wish to should prevail.  Does any secrecy concerning injuries threaten the integrity of games played?  Should a team really disclose information that may put them at a greater disadvantage?  What about HIPAA (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act)?  Should a college athlete’s health be made public in the news?

In Conclusion

Some handicappers pay a good amount of attention to the injury report.  Some may avoid a game with key injuries.  Other handicappers do not.  They have their backtested system, and that system did not factor in injury reports to begin with.  Regardless, lines may change and wages will be made (or not be made) based on injury reports.

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